Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Youngstown-Warren, OH Metro Area

The first-ranked class in a small metro

In Youngstown-Warren, full-service restaurants head the list of the 39 asset classes. The area ranks 77 of 821 nationally for the class, with 68 loans approved from FY2017 to FY2026 for $13.2 million. The location quotient of 1.09x is a little above parity.

A small median against the nation

The median loan is $50,000, only 0.18x the national median for full-service restaurants. Loans in the central band start at $50,000 and top out at $216,400, so the bottom quarter sits at the same $50,000 as the midpoint. This page cannot say what the loans were used for. Franchise share is 14.7%, so most operators are independents. Neither program count is printed for this cell, because Loan Analytics withholds both.

A dominant holder

The Huntington National Bank holds 52 of the 68 loans, $7.2 million in all. The count follows SBA's current-holder field and describes nothing about how any lender lends today. Mahoning County has 45 loans and Trumbull County 23. The area follows the July 2023 delineation, so a restaurant in either county counts.

Years and loss floors

The years SBA can print are FY2017 with 10 loans and $583,200, FY2018 with 7 and $1.8 million, FY2020 with 13 and $3.4 million, FY2023 with 12 and $3.5 million, and FY2024 with 9 and $993,000. Other years stay hidden behind Loan Analytics' small-count rule, and hidden is not none. Cancelled approvals from FY2017 through FY2024 were 10.0% or more, and the stricter ceiling version, which also counts undisbursed loans, shows the same 10.0%. The charge-off rate is withheld.

Proportion in a Youngstown-Warren study

Where loans are this small, the study has to be proportionate but still honest: seat count against the trade area's dining spend, the competing restaurants, the cost of a kitchen refresh or lease-up, and whether owner compensation can be paid after debt service. The study should show a month of low covers and still cover the payment. With a $50,000 median against a $216,400 upper quartile edge, the study should show where its own request falls in that band. An appraisal should value the operating business separately from the building or land.