Gas Station Feasibility Study in Virginia

The Virginia gas station file leaks more approvals than almost any other

The distinctive figure for Virginia is cancellation. Of fuel retail loans approved from FY2017 to FY2024, at least 27.3% were cancelled before the money moved, and the ceiling is also 27.3%, so more than a quarter of approved loans never funded as approved. That clears our distinctness screen against both the state's other lending and the class nationally. The second distinctive metric is size: a median loan of $595,950 is only 0.57x the median for the class nationally, with the central half running from $300,500 to $973,975. Across FY2017 to FY2026, 68 loans worth $59.0 million rank Virginia 22 of 53, while a location quotient of 0.53x shows the class is lightly used relative to the national share.

Lenders, programs and geography

SBA 7(a) carried 55 loans and SBA 504 carried 13. Franchise affiliation is 39.7% of loans, so branded fuel and convenience concepts are a large part of the file. Only one lender passes our five-loan line: Celtic Bank Corporation, with 6 loans worth $6.9 million. Within Virginia the class ranks 13 of 39. Hanover County leads with 6 loans, Chesterfield, Henrico and Rockingham have 4 each, and Caroline, Chesapeake City, Danville City and Virginia Beach City have 3 each, a scattered pattern that suggests corridor sites rather than one metro cluster.

Cancellation risk and the unreported charge-off rate

A borrower should read the cancellation floor as a warning about the closing process: environmental review, tank and permit issues, brand approval and appraisal shortfalls are plausible reasons for approved deals to lapse, though the data does not name causes. Virginia's charge-off figure is suppressed. Too few loans were disbursed in the cohort, so we neither print a number nor describe the position as zero. Volume is uneven, with 10 loans and $9.3 million in FY2017, 4 loans in FY2024 and 10 loans in FY2025, and $11.5 million in FY2021 the largest dollar year.

What a Virginia fuel site study must test

A feasibility study should test traffic counts and the fuel gallons a site can pull from competing stations, then the convenience store sales that carry the real margin. Cost should include tanks, canopy, environmental assessment and remediation risk, with a contingency that keeps the schedule from stalling. Coverage should be stressed using conservative fuel margins. The appraisal matters acutely, since a shortfall at appraisal is a plausible route to the cancellations seen in this file.

Two coding limits apply. The code records the borrower's own industry, which keeps travel centers and truck stops inside the group of fuel stations without a store attached. Electrified charging is missing from the 2022 NAICS index entirely.