Child Care Center Feasibility Study in the Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN Metro Area

Near-parity weight, a big ticket

Nashville's child care record is close to the national mix. A location quotient of 0.99x puts the class at essentially its national share, with child care centers 6 of 39 inside the area and 46 of 493 nationally. SBA approved 44 loans from FY2017 to FY2026 for $52.6 million. Its midpoint of $702,950 runs 1.56x the national figure, and the typical loan spans $213,150 to $1.5 million, making this a class of sizable projects.

Franchise share and counties

Franchises account for 45.5% of loans. Davidson County has 14 loans, Williamson County 8, Sumner County 7 and Maury County 6, across four counties. Its industry code is shared with child care run from a home, which the data cannot tell apart from a center, so some borrowers here may be home-based. A study for a center should not assume that every loan here funded a building.

What the page cannot say

The 7(a) and 504 counts for this cell are held back by Loan Analytics, along with both loss measures, cancellation and charge-off, for lack of enough loans. Not one lender reaches the loan count that allows a name to appear. Only one year can be shown: FY2024, with 5 loans and $15.2 million, a large sum for so few loans. Each other year is withheld by Loan Analytics, which needs more loans behind a year before printing it.

Why the single year matters

Five loans and $15.2 million in FY2024 point to a few large projects, though the figures say nothing about what they were. Readers should treat the figure as a signal to test cost and enrollment rigorously, not as a benchmark.

Studying a Middle Tennessee center

A study should start with licensed capacity and the households within a short drive who need care, then test tuition against what competing centers charge and the staffing ratios licensing imposes. Wages and teacher turnover shape cost. Building or retrofit cost, set beside a loan near $702,950 should be shown line by line. Enrollment fills slowly, so the loan payment needs coverage during the ramp. A purpose-built classroom building poses a valuation problem for the appraiser, and the study ought to say how the property would be valued if the use changed.