SBA 7(a) Restaurant Feasibility Study in North Dakota

The first class in a small state

Full-service dining is first of 39 classes in North Dakota's own mix, yet the state ranks 50 against other states by count. The 46 loans total $11.2 million. The midpoint of $159,400 is 0.65x the 7(a) restaurant midpoint nationally, and the quartiles sit at $62,500 and $338,000. Franchised loans are 6.5%. The picture is a state where restaurants are the main small-business borrower, but each loan is small.

Holders and counties

Old National Bank holds 6 loans and $2.2 million; First Western Bank & Trust holds 5 and also $2.2 million. The names are SBA's present holders. Cass County, home of Fargo, has 15 loans, Burleigh 9, and Grand Forks and Ward 5 each, which shows lending clustered around the four larger cities. Mercer and Morton have 2 each. The calendar was steadiest early, with 8 loans in FY2017 and FY2022 and 6 in FY2018, and softer later, at 4 in FY2024 and FY2025 and 2 in FY2026.

Outcome floors

North Dakota restaurant approvals dated through FY2024 show cancellation of exactly 10.0% as a floor; the ceiling lands at 10.0% too. The loss side is blank because the funded cohort did not reach the loan count SBA needs to publish a rate; read the blank as unknown. Rates are floors, and a loan approved in FY2025 or FY2026 has barely begun to season.

What a North Dakota restaurant study has to show

Population is the limiting fact in this state, so the study should size the trade area honestly: residents within a drive, workers in nearby employers, and, in energy-linked towns, the swing in temporary population. Winter shapes traffic, so show monthly sales and the weeks of weather that suppress them. Compare the concept with the competing restaurants and with the chains that anchor each city. A typical loan near $159,400 is a leasehold or an equipment and working-capital package, so itemise build-out, kitchen equipment and opening inventory. Show labor availability, since hiring is difficult in tight markets. Coverage needs a stabilised case and a slow first year. Where real estate is financed, the appraisal has to hold up with the restaurant removed.