SBA 7(a) Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in Nebraska

A franchise-heavy cell

More than half the coffee and snack loans in Nebraska are franchised: the share is 50.9% of 53 loans, an unusual number that shapes everything else on the page. Together the loans sum to $17.5 million, with a midpoint of $250,000, 1.11x the national 7(a) midpoint for the class. Coffee loans in Nebraska cluster between $85,000 and $445,600. Nebraska ranks 37 against other states in volume, but coffee shop and snack bar is 5 of 39 in Nebraska's own mix, a high standing for a small state.

Two lenders and a metro skew

Union Bank and Trust Company holds 12 loans and $5.0 million; First National Bank of Omaha holds 9 loans and $1.6 million. The pairing says the book is concentrated in a few holders. Douglas County leads the geography with 18 loans, Lancaster has 8, Sarpy 7, and Hall and Lincoln 3 each, so Omaha and Lincoln dominate. Approvals were steadiest early: 8 in FY2017 and 9 in FY2018, then 3 in FY2020, 8 in FY2024, 4 in FY2025 and 2 in FY2026.

Floors on outcomes

Nebraska coffee approvals up to FY2024 lost at least 4.3% to cancellation, rising to 6.4% if still-undisbursed loans are counted as lost. On the loss side, a cohort of 30 loans funded in the five earliest years has seen nothing charged off yet, 0.00%, and the same 0.00% holds on the five-year yardstick; both are floors. The cohort is small and recent, so open loans may still fail, and the number should be taken as an early floor.

What a Nebraska coffee study must show

With half the loans franchised, the first question is brand versus independent, and the study should say which this is and what the franchise agreement costs in royalties and required build-out. Demand for coffee is a traffic question: drive-by counts, morning commuter flow, nearby offices and campuses, and the number of competing cafes and drive-throughs. Build revenue from transactions per hour and average ticket, with a seasonal pattern, and test labor cost against it. A midpoint near $250,000 suggests a leasehold build-out and equipment, so show the lease term, the tenant allowance and the equipment life. Coverage must hold in a slow first year and in a case where a larger chain opens nearby. Owner experience in food service counts heavily with lenders.