Hotel RevPAR tracker: monthly performance by U.S. market

Modern glass-facade hotel tower in a U.S. urban market.

The U.S. hotel industry posted record nominal RevPAR in 2024 before turning negative in 2025 — its first full-year decline since the pandemic. Full-year 2024 RevPAR reached $99.94 (+1.8%), driven entirely by ADR gains of 1.7% while occupancy held flat at 63.0%. But 2025 reversed course: RevPAR slipped to $100.02 (−0.3%), with occupancy falling to 62.3% and ADR growth of just 0.9% running well below inflation. The story beneath these topline numbers is one of profound bifurcation — luxury hotels thrived while economy properties cratered, gateway cities outperformed while supply-heavy Sun Belt markets struggled, and group travel surged while leisure demand normalized. Every major forecaster progressively slashed their 2025 outlook throughout the year, with STR/CoStar revising from an optimistic +2.6% down to −0.4%. For hotel owners, operators, and investors, the era of easy post-pandemic RevPAR gains is definitively over.

National RevPAR hit a wall after two years of deceleration

The U.S. hotel industry's 2024 performance told a story of grinding deceleration. RevPAR growth of +1.8% represented the slowest expansion since the pandemic declines of 2020, entirely powered by rate rather than demand. National occupancy remained stuck at 63.0% — still roughly 280 basis points below the 2019 level of 65.8%. ADR of $158.67 set a nominal record but, adjusted for cumulative inflation, real ADR was actually 1.7% below 2019 levels, worse than the −0.5% gap measured in 2023.

The quarterly trajectory revealed an industry losing momentum before a late-year surge. Q1 started slowly, with year-to-date RevPAR through April up just +0.5% — the weakest non-recessionary start in modern tracking history. March posted a −2.0% RevPAR decline due to Easter calendar shifts and a Las Vegas convention calendar reshuffle that cratered Vegas RevPAR by 19.5%. The middle quarters were flat to modestly positive. Then Q4 2024 delivered a +3.6% RevPAR gain! — the largest quarterly increase since Q1 2023 — driven by hurricane displacement demand in Southeast markets, a compressed holiday calendar creating 17 business days in December versus 15 the prior year, and a lingering election-related travel bump. December alone surged +4.4%, the first month since February 2024 where ADR growth surpassed inflation.

The 2025 picture deteriorated sharply. Q1 2025 started with apparent strength (+2.2% RevPAR) as January benefited from hurricane aftereffects, LA wildfire displacement, and the presidential inauguration. But gains decelerated rapidly — from +4.5% in January to +0.8% by March. By mid-year, the wheels came off: May RevPAR was essentially flat (+0.1%), Q3 RevPAR fell −1.4%, and November posted a −2.4% decline — the largest monthly drop since the pandemic. The full year closed at −0.3%, marking only the third annual RevPAR decline in the past 15 years (following 2020 and 2009's −16.5% collapse during the Great Recession).

Metric	2024	YoY Change	2025	YoY Change
RevPAR	$99.94	+1.8%	$100.02	−0.3%
ADR	$158.67	+1.7%	$160.54	+0.9%
Occupancy	63.0%	Flat	62.3%	−1.2%
Real ADR vs. 2019	−1.7%	—	Worse	—

New York dominates while Las Vegas and Nashville stumble

Market-level performance diverged dramatically in 2024–2025, with regulatory-protected gateway cities pulling away from supply-saturated Sun Belt markets. The Top 25 Markets collectively posted +2.7% RevPAR growth in 2024, nearly triple the +0.9% gain across the rest of the country. But within that top tier, the spread between best and worst performers exceeded 30 percentage points.

New York City was the definitive outperformer. Full-year 2024 occupancy hit 84.3% (+3.3%) — the highest in the nation — with ADR of approximately $319 (+5.7%) and RevPAR around $269, the highest absolute figure among all Top 25 markets. NYC's strength stems from a uniquely favorable supply-demand dynamic: Local Law 18, which took effect in September 2023, slashed Airbnb supply by approximately 70%, while the Citywide Hotel Text Amendment restricted new hotel construction. With more than 70 million annual visitors and strengthening group and international demand, the city projected more than 84% occupancy into 2025 while pushing ADR above $333. Manhattan luxury properties posted +10.1% RevPAR growth in the first half of 2025, per PwC's Manhattan Lodging Index.

San Francisco emerged as 2025's recovery story. After falling from a top-3 national RevPAR ranking pre-pandemic to 10th place by 2024, the city posted the highest RevPAR increase among Top 25 markets in 2025: +11.8% to $155.84, with ADR up 6.0%. The catalyst was the AI industry's explosive growth and tech-company return-to-office mandates — Salesforce's full RTO order in January 2025 was particularly impactful. The Moscone Center projected over 650,000 room nights in 2025, though it remained at only 68% of 2019 convention levels.

Boston maintained its position as a consistent top-tier market, with 2024 ADR of approximately $232 (+3.5%) — the third-highest nationally behind Hawaii and NYC — and RevPAR around $172. Limited new supply, strong healthcare and education demand, and a robust convention calendar supported performance. Washington, D.C. benefited from the presidential inauguration in January 2025 and posted among the top 3 markets for Q1 2025 RevPAR growth.

On the opposite end, Las Vegas was the single largest drag on national numbers throughout this period. Las Vegas represents 8.5% of Top 25 market supply and 3.1% of national supply, so its wild calendar-driven swings ripple through aggregate data. The Super Bowl in February 2024 spiked ADR by 61.9% and RevPAR by 69.9% that month, but created devastating year-over-year comps elsewhere: March 2024 RevPAR fell −19.5% as convention shifts compounded the comparison effect. For full-year 2025, Las Vegas posted the largest ADR decline (−4.3% to $199.79) and the largest RevPAR decline (−10.9% to $149.13) among all Top 25 markets.

Nashville exemplifies the supply-pressure story. Despite record airport traffic (24.5 million passengers, +7.5%) and strong visitor interest, supply growth of +2.7% — among the highest nationally — overwhelmed demand absorption. Full-year 2024 RevPAR fell −5.0%, with ADR declining 2.0% to $201.83. Austin faced a similar dynamic, appearing among the weakest-performing markets "primarily due to inventory growth, rather than a collapse in demand," per NewGen Advisory. Both cities, along with Dallas and Phoenix, sit atop the nation's largest hotel construction pipelines.

Tampa presented one of the most statistically distorted stories in recent memory. Hurricanes Helene and Milton in September–October 2024 drove massive displacement demand, pushing Q4 2024 RevPAR up 34.3% — the highest gain among major markets. But as that displacement faded, 2025 brought brutal reversals: November 2025 RevPAR plunged −27.1%, and weekly figures in late 2025 showed occupancy drops of 14–20%. Houston reversed from a top-performing market in 2024 to the steepest occupancy decline in 2025 (−8.6% to 58.9%).

Maui continued its post-wildfire recovery, still carrying the nation's highest ADR at $547 but with occupancy of just 61.6% (−4.4%), placing full-year 2024 RevPAR down −13.2%. The recovery trajectory was positive heading into 2025, with industry forecasters ranking Maui as the top market for 2025 RevPAR growth potential.

The K-shaped divide between luxury and economy widens

The most consequential trend in U.S. hotel performance is the deepening segmentation gap. In 2024 and 2025, the industry operated as essentially two separate businesses: one serving affluent travelers and thriving, another serving budget-conscious guests and contracting.

Luxury hotels led all segments in 2025 with RevPAR growth of +3.0% to +5.3% depending on the measurement period, per JLL and PwC data. Occupancy hovered in the high 60s, ADR averaged around $273, and demand was strong across 16 of 19 months through mid-year. The number of U.S. hotels achieving $1,000+ ADR grew from 22 in 2019 to 80 by mid-2024. Luxury's resilience reflects the well-documented bifurcation in consumer spending — high-income households continue prioritizing experiential travel.

Upper Upscale was the best consistent performer in 2024, posting approximately +2.7% RevPAR through April and sustaining positive growth throughout the year, powered by robust group demand. Upper Upscale and Luxury combined saw group demand growth of +8.7% in early 2024. Upscale posted modest gains of around +1.2% through mid-2024 before softening.

The divide sharpens dramatically below the upscale threshold. Upper Midscale hovered near flat (−0.4% YTD through April 2024, improving to +0.4% by Q3). This segment was historically the industry's best long-term performer due to low labor costs, free breakfast appeal, and the ability to capture both trade-up and trade-down guests — but that momentum stalled. Midscale posted negative performance for most of 2024 (−2.7% through April), finishing 2025 at approximately −2.8% per JLL. New midscale brand launches appear to be cannibalizing legacy brands.

Economy was the worst-performing segment by a wide margin: −5.7% RevPAR through April 2024, −2.4% for Q3, and closing 2025 at approximately −4.4%. Beyond cyclical weakness, economy hotels face a structural contraction — rooms inventory has shrunk 10.8% over five years as properties close or exit the segment. ADR lingered around $87 with occupancy in the mid-50s, and demand erosion reflects fewer lower-income leisure travelers combined with growing short-term rental competition.

Group travel leads while international visitors retreat

Several demand drivers defined the 2024–2025 performance landscape.

Group travel was the clear bright spot. Marriott CEO Anthony Capuano called it the "standout customer segment" of 2024, with group RevPAR rising 10%+ year-over-year globally in Q2 2024 and full-year worldwide group revenues pacing up 9%. The Knowland/Amadeus Group Index reached 105.5% overall health versus 2023 in Q2 2024, with 22 of the top 25 markets exceeding 100%. Convention activity drove enormous market-level swings: Chicago and New Orleans saw citywide room nights jump 200% and nearly 300% YoY, respectively, in H2 2024. Group ADR rose from $297 in 2022 to $321 in 2024. However, by mid-2025, group demand appeared to plateau, with CBRE citing declining meeting and convention attendance as a headwind.

Business transient travel has essentially recovered to 2019 levels by dollar volume. GBTA projected global business travel spending would return to the pre-pandemic $1.4 trillion total in 2024 and grow to $1.8 trillion by 2027. But the recovery is structurally different: hybrid work models reduced internal corporate travel; small and medium businesses now account for approximately 55% of business transient room nights, overtaking large corporate accounts. The traditional midweek occupancy peak has flattened, replaced by a broader booking spread as bleisure travel — now a $700 billion global market expected to double by 2032 — blurs the line between work and leisure.

Leisure travel normalization was perhaps the defining demand theme. Leisure demand surpassed 2019 levels in 2022 before "coming back down to earth," per the U.S. Travel Association. By 2024, leisure transient posted only +2% RevPAR growth — the weakest customer segment — as rate fatigue set in and consumers showed increased price sensitivity. The era of broad-based rate surges has ended.

International inbound travel has become the industry's most acute vulnerability. The U.S. welcomed 72.4 million international visitors in 2024 — still 7 million fewer than 2019 (91% recovery). More alarmingly, the U.S. Travel Association projected inbound visits to decline 6.3% in 2025, to just 67.9 million. European arrivals dropped 17% in March 2025; Canadian bookings fell 20%+ for early summer. The U.S. is the only country among 184 analyzed by WTTC expected to see international visitor spending decline in 2025. Contributing factors include tariff and trade policy uncertainty, elevated visa wait times, a strong dollar, and negative international sentiment. Full recovery is now not expected until 2029 — a full decade post-pandemic. Each 1% drop in international visitor spending erases $1.8 billion in export revenue.

Supply growth remains historically restrained but is accelerating. Just 583 hotels (67,995 rooms) opened in 2024, expanding supply by 1.2%. CBRE forecasts annual supply growth averaging only 0.7% between 2024 and 2028 — less than half the pre-COVID rate. Construction costs at all-time highs and elevated financing rates are constraining the pipeline. Nevertheless, the total U.S. pipeline reached a record 6,378 projects and 746,986 rooms by Q4 2024, with Dallas (199 projects), Atlanta (168), Nashville (130), Phoenix (130), and Austin (119) leading. Extended-stay is booming, with 223 new hotels opened in 2024 and 363 projected for 2026. Critically, CBRE flagged a 5.3% increase in short-term rental supply as shadow competition.

Seasonal patterns are shifting as bleisure blurs traditional peaks

U.S. hotel RevPAR follows distinct seasonal rhythms that vary dramatically by market type, and post-pandemic behavioral shifts are redrawing these patterns.

Nationally, the historical peak months are March, April, and October, driven by spring business travel and fall convention season. July has been the peak occupancy month since 1993, with June through August delivering the highest absolute occupancy. January and December have historically been the weakest months — though December has shown the fastest occupancy growth of any month over the past three decades, reflecting the increasing popularity of holiday-period leisure travel (a record 119 million Americans traveled over Christmas 2024).

Market-type seasonality diverges sharply. Urban business markets like Boston, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. peak in spring (March–May) and fall (September–November), driven by convention calendars and corporate activity, with relatively moderate seasonal swings of 15–25%. Sun Belt winter markets like Phoenix and Palm Springs peak during November–April as snowbirds arrive, then crater in summer heat — creating seasonal occupancy swings of 30–50%. Florida beach markets peak January–April from northern visitors before tapering through hurricane season. Coastal summer destinations show the most extreme volatility, with occupancy exceeding 95% in peak July weeks but dropping below 40% off-season.

Convention calendars create outsized weekly RevPAR volatility in specific markets. CES in January drives Las Vegas rates above $1,000 per night; SXSW in March transforms Austin; the Democratic National Convention at Chicago's McCormick Place in 2024 pushed hotel metrics to records. These events also create tough year-over-year comparisons — Phoenix saw double-digit RevPAR drops in April 2025 after hosting the Super Bowl in 2024.

Remote work and bleisure travel are gradually smoothing traditional seasonality. Booking patterns have shifted away from concentrated midweek corporate peaks toward a broader spread; weekend occupancies have risen in formerly business-dominated urban centers. The "shoulder season" is becoming blurred as 37% of North American business travelers extend work trips for leisure, per GBTA.

Every major forecaster progressively cut their 2025 outlook

The trajectory of 2025 RevPAR forecasts tells its own story about an industry caught off guard by macroeconomic headwinds. STR/CoStar issued the most dramatic revision path: from an optimistic +2.6% in mid-2024, to +1.8% in January 2025, then successive downgrades at the NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference and Hotel Data Conference, finally settling at −0.4% by November 2025. The actual full-year result of −0.3% came in marginally better. STR President Amanda Hite warned that "ADR is growing well below the rate of inflation, which in turn will put more pressure on margins."

CBRE Hotels Research followed a similar arc, starting at +2.0% in February 2025, cutting to +1.3% in May, then to just +0.1% by August. CBRE cited trade tensions, government layoffs, declining international travel, and a drop in convention attendance. PwC revised from +1.5% down to −0.2%. The AHLA published the most optimistic projection at +2.58% (to $102.78) in its February 2025 State of the Industry report, based on Oxford Economics data, but this was never revised downward as conditions deteriorated.

Major hotel companies provided 2025 guidance that bookended the forecaster range. Marriott guided +2% to +4% worldwide RevPAR before cutting to +1.5% to +3.5%, citing a 10% drop in U.S. government bookings. Hilton adjusted to 0% to +2%, with CEO Chris Nassetta describing a "wait-and-see mode." Hotel REITs generally guided 0% to +3%, with DiamondRock at +1% to +3% and Host Hotels at +0.5% to +2.5%.

Looking ahead, CoStar/Tourism Economics forecasts 2026 RevPAR growth of just +0.6%, with 2027 at +1.4% — both well below the long-term average of +3.0%. The FIFA World Cup in 2026 and America's 250th anniversary are expected to provide upside, with JLL projecting mid-double-digit RevPAR growth in select World Cup host cities. But structural headwinds — labor cost inflation, softening consumer spending, short-term rental competition, and international travel uncertainty — suggest the industry's growth ceiling has lowered.

How RevPAR is tracked and who does the tracking

RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) is calculated by dividing total room revenue by total available rooms, or equivalently, by multiplying ADR (Average Daily Rate) by occupancy rate. It is the lodging industry's primary top-line performance metric because it captures both pricing power and demand in a single figure. However, RevPAR measures only room revenue, excluding food and beverage, spa, parking, resort fees, and other ancillary income that can represent 30–50% of total revenue at full-service properties.

STR (Smith Travel Research), founded in 1985 and acquired by CoStar Group in October 2019, is the industry's dominant benchmarking provider. STR collects data directly from over 90,000 participating properties encompassing 11.8 million rooms globally. Hotels submit rooms sold, room revenue, and rooms available; STR then compiles this into its flagship STAR Report, delivered weekly (every Tuesday, covering Sunday–Saturday) and monthly with deeper segmentation. STR's free weekly and monthly press releases on national and Top 25 market performance are the most widely cited industry data points. The company classifies hotels into seven chain scales: Luxury, Upper Upscale, Upscale, Upper Midscale, Midscale, Economy, and Independent.

Three major competitors serve complementary rather than directly competing functions. HotStats (a Duetto company) focuses on full profit-and-loss benchmarking across 500+ KPIs, with its signature metric being GOPPAR (Gross Operating Profit Per Available Room) — capturing total revenue, departmental costs, and profitability rather than just rooms revenue. HotStats advocates that "RevPAR tells half the story." Amadeus Demand360 provides forward-looking demand intelligence drawn from 41,000+ hotels' reservation system data, offering on-the-books occupancy, booking pace by segment and channel, and future rate data — making it the primary tool for revenue managers optimizing pricing. CBRE Hotels Research brings investment-grade analytics through its Trends® database (operating since 1935), Benchmarker℠ financial statements from 7,000+ properties, and Hotel Horizons® quarterly forecasts covering 65 North American markets with 10-year projections.

Hotel REIT earnings reveal a market favoring urban portfolios

Q4 2024 earnings across hotel REITs and major brands confirmed the industry-wide themes with granular property-level data. DiamondRock Hospitality delivered the strongest REIT performance with Total RevPAR up +5.5% (urban hotels +8.2%, December alone +13.2%), driven by Chicago, Salt Lake City, San Diego, and Boston. Chatham Lodging Trust posted +4% RevPAR growth — outperforming the industry by 56% for the third consecutive year — with Silicon Valley and Bellevue tech demand up 17% in Q1. Host Hotels reported +3.0% comparable RevPAR with a $1.5 billion acquisition spree including the 1 Hotel Nashville and Ritz-Carlton O'ahu Turtle Bay.

Among the asset-light franchisors, Marriott posted the strongest global figure at +5.0% Q4 RevPAR (U.S. & Canada +4.1%), with business transient fully recovered to 2019 levels and a record pipeline of 577,000 rooms. Hyatt matched at +5.0% system-wide, powered by a 10% jump in business transient revenue. Choice Hotels outperformed its chain-scale peers by 90 basis points with +4.5% domestic RevPAR. Across all reporting companies, the consistent narrative was urban outperformance, group demand strength, leisure normalization, and labor cost pressure on margins — Host Hotels guided for EBITDA margins to decline 150–210 basis points in 2025 with wage inflation running approximately 6%.

Conclusion

The U.S. hotel industry stands at an inflection point. After four years of post-pandemic recovery that delivered cumulative nominal RevPAR gains, 2025's −0.3% decline signals that the recovery cycle has ended and a normalization phase has begun. The most important insight is structural, not cyclical: this is a K-shaped industry where luxury RevPAR can grow 5% while economy shrinks 4% in the same year, where New York City's regulatory moat delivers 84% occupancy while Nashville's construction boom pushes RevPAR negative despite record visitor counts.

Three dynamics will determine the next chapter. First, supply discipline — with pipeline growth constrained to 0.7–1.5% annually through 2028, the industry has a floor under pricing that previous cycles lacked. Second, international inbound recovery — the projected $12.5 billion loss in international visitor spending in 2025 represents the largest single demand headwind, and full recovery now extends to 2029. Third, the consumer spending bifurcation shows no sign of resolving: luxury operators should continue pricing aggressively while economy operators face an existential reckoning as their room inventory contracts for the sixth consecutive year. The 2026 FIFA World Cup and 2028 Los Angeles Olympics offer the most concrete upside catalysts on the horizon, but for most markets and most segments, RevPAR growth of 1–2% will be the new normal — a reality that demands operational efficiency rather than top-line exuberance.

For investors and lenders evaluating hotel projects, a bankable feasibility study provides the market validation and financial projections required to secure financing. Learn more about our hotel feasibility study services and how SBA-backed feasibility studies support hospitality lending decisions. For the broader industry context behind these RevPAR trends, see our US hotel industry 2024 performance review, and for valuation implications of shifting STR metrics, explore our hotel valuation reality check.

Sources:

• Hotel News Resource — U.S. Hotel Performance April 2024

• Hotel News Resource — U.S. Hotel Performance May 2025

• CBRE — Q1 2025 U.S. Hotel Figures

• CBRE — H2 2025 Global Hotel Outlook

• CBRE — U.S. Hotels State of the Union, Sept 2025

• CBRE — Modest RevPAR Growth Forecast 2025

• PwC — Hospitality Industry Outlook

• PwC — Manhattan Lodging Index H1 2025

• LODGING Magazine — U.S. Hotels Report Occupancy and RevPAR Declines:

• World Property Journal — Global Hotel Performance 2025

• NYC Planning — NYC Hotel Market Analysis (PDF)

• Amadeus Demand360 — Hotel Tech Report Review

• Business Travel News — CoStar: 2025 U.S. Hotel RevPAR Decline

• Asian Hospitality — U.S. Hotels Record ADR, RevPAR 2024

• HFTP — 2024 Hotel Group, Events & Meetings Trends